Track Record
Every valuation we publish is timestamped — here is how the calls have done. Research, not investment advice.
Methodology
How it works
- Each valuation is snapshotted to our database at publication time — fair value, the market price at that moment and the margin of safety, with a write-once timestamp.
- The verdict comes from the margin of safety at the call: above +5% is undervalued, below −5% is overvalued, in between is fair value.
- Forward return is measured from the price at the call to the latest price. A call enters the measurable cohort once it is at least 90 days old; we use the earliest call per company.
Limitations
- Short history — snapshots only accrue from Dec 19, 2025, so the measurable cohort is still small.
- No benchmark adjustment — returns are absolute, not relative to an index; a rising market lifts most calls.
- No dividends or costs — returns are price-only and ignore dividends, fees, taxes and slippage.
- Coverage survivorship — only companies our models cover are tracked; names that drop out of coverage leave the sample.
- 65 calls excluded by an automated data-integrity guard (suspected split/currency mismatches) pending review.
Calls tracked
13,217
timestamped valuation snapshots
Companies covered
1,921
distinct symbols
Tracking since
Dec 19, 2025
earliest snapshot
Measurable cohort
1,302
90+ day calls
How to read this page
+0.4%discrimination spread — undervalued minus overvalued, median forward return
Absolute returns below mostly measure the market — a rising tide lifts most calls. The test of a valuation model is this spread. So far our undervalued calls are outperforming our overvalued calls. With a cohort this young (measurable calls only accrue since Dec 19, 2025), the spread is closer to noise than verdict — judge it once calls season past 12 months.
Undervalued calls
+2.2%
median forward return
489 calls55.4% positive
Fair-value calls
+2.1%
median forward return
95 calls56.8% positive
Overvalued calls
+1.8%
median forward return
718 calls54.9% positive
Returns are absolute in a rising market; discrimination = the undervalued-minus-overvalued spread, not either number alone.
Measurable calls
earliest call per company, 90+ days old · showing 50 of 1302| Company | Call date | Verdict | MoS at call | Price then | Price now | Forward return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −61.0% | $273.67 | $332.55 | +21.5% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −8.7% | $66.69 | $83.79 | +25.6% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Undervalued | +14.4% | $63.51 | $68.07 | +7.2% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −65.1% | €120.15 | €144.26 | +20.1% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −64.6% | $639.43 | $957.27 | +49.7% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −45.0% | $485.92 | $491.65 | +1.2% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −36.9% | $159.15 | $261.07 | +64.0% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Undervalued | +29.4% | €36.26 | €27.69 | −23.6% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −26.0% | $290.99 | $392.40 | +34.8% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −46.4% | €236.00 | €285.60 | +21.0% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −41.2% | $349.25 | $370.47 | +6.1% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Fair value | −0.0% | $327.38 | $377.29 | +15.2% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Undervalued | +63.4% | $310.60 | $338.60 | +9.0% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Undervalued | +39.9% | $60.10 | $59.33 | −1.3% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Undervalued | +31.4% | $139.64 | $173.34 | +24.1% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Overvalued | −27.7% | $307.16 | $338.46 | +10.2% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −37.3% | HK$614.50 | HK$425.60 | −30.7% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −5.4% | $114.54 | $123.38 | +7.7% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −10.6% | $91.36 | $162.13 | +77.5% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Undervalued | +46.6% | $341.48 | $418.65 | +22.6% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −29.8% | $311.36 | $335.41 | +7.7% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Undervalued | +20.1% | $782.02 | $781.29 | −0.1% |
 | Dec 23, 2025 | Undervalued | +54.7% | $13.86 | $14.79 | +6.7% |
 | Dec 24, 2025 | Overvalued | −55.6% | $188.25 | $223.67 | +18.8% |
 | Dec 24, 2025 | Overvalued | −6.6% | $249.83 | $215.47 | −13.8% |
 | Dec 24, 2025 | Undervalued | +44.6% | €29.28 | €31.44 | +7.4% |
 | Dec 25, 2025 | Overvalued | −61.7% | $126.25 | $106.24 | −15.8% |
 | Jan 23, 2026 | Overvalued | −47.7% | $622.95 | $715.00 | +14.8% |
 | Jan 29, 2026 | Fair value | +0.7% | $79.26 | $66.78 | −15.8% |
 | Jan 29, 2026 | Overvalued | −35.5% | $685.27 | $764.22 | +11.5% |
 | Jan 31, 2026 | Overvalued | −8.9% | $293.25 | $252.32 | −14.0% |
 | Feb 12, 2026 | Overvalued | −70.9% | $16.83 | $15.37 | −8.6% |
 | Feb 21, 2026 | Overvalued | −48.0% | C$311.56 | C$283.22 | −9.1% |
 | Feb 21, 2026 | Overvalued | −50.9% | $122.99 | $105.73 | −14.0% |
 | Mar 3, 2026 | Undervalued | +8.8% | $31.94 | $20.54 | −35.7% |
 | Mar 5, 2026 | Fair value | +1.6% | $31.54 | $34.13 | +8.2% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −5.6% | $359.10 | $322.52 | −10.2% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −36.0% | $56.87 | $71.08 | +25.0% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −33.4% | $254.11 | $284.40 | +11.9% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −38.1% | $331.41 | $378.15 | +14.1% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −55.7% | $72.40 | $86.22 | +19.1% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −26.4% | $25.15 | $24.73 | −1.7% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −53.0% | $138.08 | $152.17 | +10.2% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −30.4% | €195.90 | €216.20 | +10.4% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −6.1% | $250.89 | $296.01 | +18.0% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −42.6% | $151.63 | $168.56 | +11.2% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −78.6% | $1,023.16 | $1,223.86 | +19.6% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −39.1% | Fr29.62 | Fr44.56 | +50.4% |
 | Mar 10, 2026 | Overvalued | −55.8% | ¥69,790.00 | ¥51,980.00 | −25.5% |
 | Mar 10, 2026 | Undervalued | +6.4% | €24.80 | €31.56 | +27.3% |
Past performance does not predict future results. This is an automated research log, not audited performance, and not investment advice.