Track Record
Every valuation we publish is timestamped — here is how the calls have done. Research, not investment advice.
Methodology
How it works
- Each valuation is snapshotted to our database at publication time — fair value, the market price at that moment and the margin of safety, with a write-once timestamp.
- The verdict comes from the margin of safety at the call: above +5% is undervalued, below −5% is overvalued, in between is fair value.
- Forward return is measured from the price at the call to the latest price. A call enters the measurable cohort once it is at least 90 days old; we use the earliest call per company.
Limitations
- Short history — snapshots only accrue from Dec 19, 2025, so the measurable cohort is still small.
- No benchmark adjustment — returns are absolute, not relative to an index; a rising market lifts most calls.
- No dividends or costs — returns are price-only and ignore dividends, fees, taxes and slippage.
- Coverage survivorship — only companies our models cover are tracked; names that drop out of coverage leave the sample.
- 109 calls excluded by an automated data-integrity guard (suspected split/currency mismatches) pending review.
Calls tracked
14,322
timestamped valuation snapshots
Companies covered
1,922
distinct symbols
Tracking since
Dec 19, 2025
earliest snapshot
Measurable cohort
1,525
90+ day calls
How to read this page
+0.9%discrimination spread — undervalued minus overvalued, median forward return
Absolute returns below mostly measure the market — a rising tide lifts most calls. The test of a valuation model is this spread. So far our undervalued calls are outperforming our overvalued calls. With a cohort this young (measurable calls only accrue since Dec 19, 2025), the spread is closer to noise than verdict — judge it once calls season past 12 months.
Undervalued calls
+2.0%
median forward return
656 calls53.7% positive
Fair-value calls
+2.0%
median forward return
107 calls61.7% positive
Overvalued calls
+1.1%
median forward return
762 calls52.1% positive
Returns are absolute in a rising market; discrimination = the undervalued-minus-overvalued spread, not either number alone.
Measurable calls
earliest call per company, 90+ days old · showing 50 of 1525| Company | Call date | Verdict | MoS at call | Price then | Price now | Forward return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −61.0% | $273.67 | $345.02 | +26.1% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Undervalued | +14.4% | $63.51 | $66.14 | +4.1% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −65.1% | €120.15 | €128.58 | +7.0% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −64.6% | $639.43 | $908.44 | +42.1% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −45.0% | $485.92 | $529.76 | +9.0% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −36.9% | $159.15 | $270.79 | +70.1% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Undervalued | +29.4% | €36.26 | €26.70 | −26.4% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −26.0% | $290.99 | $415.62 | +42.8% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −46.4% | €236.00 | €274.50 | +16.3% |
 | Dec 19, 2025 | Overvalued | −41.2% | $349.25 | $401.99 | +15.1% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Fair value | −0.0% | $327.38 | $451.78 | +38.0% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Undervalued | +63.4% | $310.60 | $346.16 | +11.4% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Undervalued | +39.9% | $60.10 | $57.35 | −4.6% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Undervalued | +31.4% | $139.64 | $154.79 | +10.8% |
 | Dec 21, 2025 | Overvalued | −27.7% | $307.16 | $340.28 | +10.8% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −37.3% | HK$614.50 | HK$417.80 | −32.0% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −5.4% | $114.54 | $128.20 | +11.9% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −10.6% | $91.36 | $155.82 | +70.6% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Undervalued | +46.6% | $341.48 | $421.45 | +23.4% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Overvalued | −29.8% | $311.36 | $323.11 | +3.8% |
 | Dec 22, 2025 | Undervalued | +20.1% | $782.02 | $816.10 | +4.4% |
 | Dec 23, 2025 | Undervalued | +54.7% | $13.86 | $14.99 | +8.2% |
 | Dec 24, 2025 | Overvalued | −55.6% | $188.25 | $216.69 | +15.1% |
 | Dec 24, 2025 | Overvalued | −6.6% | $249.83 | $201.28 | −19.4% |
 | Dec 24, 2025 | Undervalued | +44.6% | €29.28 | €32.62 | +11.4% |
 | Dec 25, 2025 | Overvalued | −61.7% | $126.25 | $74.73 | −40.8% |
 | Jan 23, 2026 | Overvalued | −47.7% | $622.95 | $720.77 | +15.7% |
 | Jan 29, 2026 | Fair value | +0.7% | $79.26 | $71.11 | −10.3% |
 | Jan 29, 2026 | Overvalued | −35.5% | $685.27 | $769.58 | +12.3% |
 | Jan 31, 2026 | Overvalued | −8.9% | $293.25 | $249.58 | −14.9% |
 | Feb 12, 2026 | Overvalued | −70.9% | $16.83 | $12.43 | −26.1% |
 | Feb 21, 2026 | Overvalued | −48.0% | C$311.56 | C$267.66 | −14.1% |
 | Feb 21, 2026 | Overvalued | −50.9% | $122.99 | $118.70 | −3.5% |
 | Mar 3, 2026 | Undervalued | +8.8% | $31.94 | $18.05 | −43.5% |
 | Mar 5, 2026 | Fair value | +1.6% | $31.54 | $35.12 | +11.4% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −5.6% | $359.10 | $298.76 | −16.8% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −36.0% | $56.87 | $72.25 | +27.0% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −33.4% | $254.11 | $299.87 | +18.0% |
 | Mar 8, 2026 | Overvalued | −38.1% | $331.41 | $375.54 | +13.3% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −55.7% | $72.40 | $81.65 | +12.8% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −26.4% | $25.15 | $20.78 | −17.4% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −53.0% | $138.08 | $166.25 | +20.4% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −30.4% | €195.90 | €188.10 | −4.0% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −6.1% | $250.89 | $281.29 | +12.1% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −42.6% | $151.63 | $175.56 | +15.8% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −78.6% | $1,023.16 | $1,209.93 | +18.3% |
 | Mar 9, 2026 | Overvalued | −39.1% | Fr29.62 | Fr38.84 | +31.1% |
 | Mar 10, 2026 | Overvalued | −55.8% | ¥69,790.00 | ¥51,140.00 | −26.7% |
 | Mar 10, 2026 | Undervalued | +6.4% | €24.80 | €35.10 | +41.5% |
 | Mar 10, 2026 | Overvalued | −24.8% | €76.60 | €89.70 | +17.1% |
Past performance does not predict future results. This is an automated research log, not audited performance, and not investment advice.