Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Intrinsic Value for Dividend Stocks

Dividend Discount Model explained: how DDM works, when it's appropriate, and how investors use dividends to estimate intrinsic value.

What is DDM?

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on the present value of future dividends. It is most useful for stable dividend payers with predictable dividend growth.

When investors should use it

  • Stable dividend companies (utilities, mature staples)
  • Businesses where dividends reflect real shareholder payouts
  • As a cross-check with other intrinsic value methods
Reason: dividends are only one return channel

DDM ignores buybacks and reinvestment unless reflected in dividends. Use it when dividends are a strong signal of shareholder returns.

Learn dividend investing + screen

Use dividend metrics and valuation tools together.

FAQs

Can DDM value non-dividend stocks?

Not well. If a company does not pay dividends (or pays tiny dividends), DDM can underestimate value.

What is the biggest risk in DDM?

Assumptions about dividend growth and required return. Small changes in inputs can change the valuation a lot.

Related

Intrinsic Investor is for education and research only. Not financial advice.